USTA Non-Action On 2020 Ratings Hurts Amateur Tennis

In mid-September, the United States Tennis Association (USTA) announced they would not run or publish 2020 player ratings. Given the state of amateur tennis in the U.S. and the USTA specifically, I believe this is a grave mistake.

Why? 

• Overall, USTA adult league participation is declining.
• Failing to publish 2020 year-end ratings will contribute to the overall decline in adult league play.
• Failure to publish ratings demonstrates the NTRP algorithm is flawed. Some states and sections told players that 2020 matches would count toward ratings; therefore, players paid and played in good faith.

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Each December, the USTA publishes player ratings for the following year. Based on the current season’s match results, players can be moved up, down, or remain at their current level. Here are the basics:

The USTA’s National Tennis Rating Program, or NTRP, publishes a player’s estimated dynamic rating, determining at what level they can compete. A player can participate on USTA league teams at or above their current rating but cannot play below their rated level. This rule is designed to ensure fairness and even competition for the next 12 months.

For example, a 4.0 rated player with a successful league record against players rated at a higher level could find themselves bumped to a 4.5 rating. Conversely, recording a significant number of losses against competitors with lower ratings might yield a move down to 3.5. The majority of players usually retain their current rating each year.

2020 has certainly been an unusual year with USTA league play interrupted by many COVID-19 restrictions. Estimates show that 2020 adult league match play will be down 62 percent over the previous year. That’s why making the case not to calculate year-end player ratings seems easy. 

However, not using a shortened season where competitive state and sectional matches were played will harm the USTA in future years. 

Let’s examine the reasons.

USTA Adult League Participation Is Declining

Kevin Schmidt, a USTA league player who writes about and tracks USTA play and rating issues, has shown how much league participation has fallen dramatically over the last few years from 276,000 down to 254,000 in six short years. That’s a decrease of eight percent:

Kevin also surmises that the average USTA participant is aging, increasing 40 and over and 55 and over play. At the same time, younger people aren’t joining USTA leagues at an equal pace.

From 2013-2019, roughly 10 percent, or 22,000 fewer players, participated in 18 and over adult league match play (mixed, combo & tri-level are not included). Not issuing 2020 year-end ratings might hasten the decline. If the USTA cannot find a solution to attract or develop younger players, they might transition to pickleball. 

On the plus side, 40 and over, and 55 and over, play experienced a slight increase. However, the USTA’s decision to reduce the number of match courts from five to four by eliminating a singles court could further reduce participation. Competitive 40 and over teams often used singles courts to win matches by countering doubles courts. 

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Kevin’s research has also shown that 23,000 plus player ratings change every year. This means that those players will be playing out of their correct rating in 2021 if the USTA refuses to publish year-end ratings.

Given the decrease in overall USTA league participation, failing to produce new 2021 ratings could lead to more significant losses if existing players become frustrated with unequal or unfair match play. 

The NTRP Algorithm Is Flawed (Where and When It Counts)

Like Facebook and other social media platforms, the NTRP does not share how it writes the algorithm that calculates player ratings. From what little we do know about the algorithm, there appear to be several minor flaws that create significant problems.

The majority of USTA league players don’t consistently qualify for state, sectional, and national play. For most of these players, the algorithm works well.

“USTA leagues can be quite a shady business. I’m surprised Nationals wants to add to it and make it worse than a normal year next year by not publishing. Why not fix the current problems with ratings at the very least?” 

“I should have been bumped to 4.5, but I guess at least I will get a chance to go to nationals next year (if they are held)” 

(The quotes above are player comments on computeratings.blogspot.com)

If you’ve participated in USTA league play for a couple of years or more, chances are you’ve encountered opponents rated above and below their ability level. The frustration is when someone plays with too low a rating and dominates their league. Worst of all, they “throw” matches to maintain a rating lower than their skill level. 

In 2017 I played on a USTA men’s 40 over, 3.5 team built to win Nationals. While we fell short of taking home the championship trophy, we did make it to Nationals. USTA rules state that any team advancing to nationals must “break up” the following year. This means that no more than three players from that team can play together on a team with the same age group and level. 

Some players on our team were bumped up, and rightfully so. Others kept their current rating. The following season three of our teammates formed another team. 

One glaring problem occurred when they added a player on their new 3.5 roster who only two seasons prior held a 4.5 rating.

Did this player have a significant decrease in skill level? No. They intentionally manipulated the rating system by throwing adult league matches in a neighboring state to get bumped down. Why? So they could win more mixed doubles championships, and that’s precisely what happened.

In 2018, playing as a 3.5, 40 over male, they were on the team that won the 40 over, 7.0 Mixed Doubles National Championship. In 2019 they were bumped to 4.0 and contributed significantly to a 9.0 Mixed Doubles team that won Nationals, defeating their opponent 6-3, 6-1 in the finals. Seriously, how many players do you know that are capable of pulling that feat off?

Another example is from the West Coast. Some friends in Tennessee often discuss a guy who played against the national Men’s 4.5, 18s runner-up team from Knoxville in 2019. One of their teammates played against a guy from California playing for a Mid-Atlantic team, had a 2-1 record in regular-season play while posting a 5-0 record at Nationals, winning 6-3, 6-2 in the finals, and losing only 2 of 16 sets at Sectionals and Nationals. For some reason, he wasn’t bumped in 2019 and will continue playing at his current level in 2021. 

The USTA missing this scenario is a huge problem. The other part is that mixed, combo, and tri-level play are not factored into NTRP ratings unless that’s all someone plays.

If the USTA fails to publish 2020 year-end ratings, they allow self-rated players and sandbaggers to manipulate the system for an additional 12 months. That’s unfair to others who deserve a chance to advance by playing suitable competitors.

Moving forward, I see the USTA has three choices.

1. Publish updated ratings as normal. 

Continuing the practice of publishing ratings will maintain consistency throughout all sections. Sure, many league players couldn’t play as many matches as previous seasons, and play in certain parts of the country was restricted by COVID closings. However, many players did play more than the required three matches, and those scores should be considered in updated ratings.

After all, what’s the harm in publishing 2020 year-end ratings? None. The only damage occurs by not publishing the ratings. Below is a graph showing the percentage of players bumped at various levels from 2018 to 2019.

 Percent of USTA player levels between 2018 – 2019

1. Not publish updated ratings, but allow players to appeal their current rating.

Assuming the USTA doesn’t publish updated 2021 ratings, at a minimum, they should allow players to appeal their current rating. According to Kevin Schmidt, the USTA allows players to appeal, with players 70+ receiving an automatic waiver. Some may appeal up if they believe their player’s level improved enough to compete at a higher level. To their credit, the USTA recognizes that the NTRP algorithm isn’t perfect. That’s why manual appeals are vital if they are conducted fairly and not manipulated by the same group of reviewers. 

Others who haven’t played much or can demonstrate through 2020 play that they are rated too high should be allowed to appeal their current rating. The USTA recognizes that an upper level 4.0 will often defeat a lower level 4.0 player 6-0, 6-0. Players at the bottom of a rating level who can’t compete with the majority of players at their level will become discouraged and decide not to participate in USTA league play. 

When vacationing in Florida, I routinely encounter fellow tennis players from Atlanta, Nashville, and Dallas. Many don’t participate in USTA adult leagues, opting to join leagues such as ALTA in the Atlanta area or TCD in Dallas. Their reasons are the other leagues are more organized, less expensive to join, and more fun. 

Why isn’t the USTA doing more to recapture players in these cities? I can assure you that by allowing a small minority of players to manipulate the rating system, fewer players will be inclined to stay with USTA leagues if other options are available.

1. Do nothing, disenfranchise a large percentage of players, and watch USTA participation continue to decline.

In my opinion, this is the least attractive option and will do nothing to improve USTA league play. Unfortunately, that seems to be the direction that USTA executives prefer this year.

The future of USTA adult league play isn’t pretty.

The USTA is the premier tennis association in this country. To retain the position, it should reinvent and reorganize itself. Reports show that over 95 percent of annual revenue goes for salary and overhead. Would you contribute to a non-profit where so little of your money is used to advance their cause and grow membership? 

As previously mentioned, some states and sections told players that 2020 matches would count toward year-end ratings. Now players are being told their matches won’t matter, and they cannot receive refunds after being lied to by USTA section representatives. This will continue the USTA’s downward trend, showing that the organization cannot be trusted, leading to even more defections.

The bottom line.

The USTA is at significant risk of disenfranchising 23,000 players by not releasing ratings with an algorithm they say works. 

 My prediction is that a significant percentage of those 23,000 players will discontinue USTA league participation, opting instead to play in competing local leagues or non-sanctioned USTA tournaments. 

When you combine this loss with the consistent decline in 18 and over leagues, the USTA snowball will increase at such a rapid rate that stopping its downward momentum will be difficult, if not impossible, to stop. As with any business, it’s easier to retain existing customers than gain new ones.

The best way to improve the NTRP rating system is to publish updated ratings for the 2021 season. It’s the right move to ensure fair and competitive play in the years ahead.